Nifty Realty vs Nifty Energy: Which index should one bet on ahead of Budget?

As the Budget 2024 approaches, investors are weighing the options between Nifty Realty and Nifty Energy to make informed decisions. The analysis involves evaluating market performance, historical data, and expert opinions.

Before a recent correction, Nifty Realty hit a new high of 894.40 on January 15, 2024, marking a 141% surge from its 52-week low.

Over the last year, the Nifty Realty index outperformed Nifty Energy, rising by 99%, while Nifty Energy recorded a 32% increase.

In 2023, Nifty Realty soared over 70%, outpacing Nifty Energy's 42% rise.

Nifty Energy reached a record high of 35,495.55 on January 16, 2024, with a 64% increase from its 52-week low.

In the last year, Nifty Energy gained 32%, trailing behind Nifty Realty's 99% rise.

In 2023, Nifty Energy posted a 42% increase, while Nifty Realty surged by 70%.

Long-term Performance (3 years):

Nifty Realty skyrocketed over 192% in the last 3 years.

Nifty Energy experienced a 120% jump over the same period.

Constituents:

Nifty Realty (Top 5 performers):

Prestige Estates: 190% increase

Sobha, Brigade Enterprises, DLF, Macrotech Developers: 101% to 135% increase

Godrej Properties, Phoenix Mills, Oberoi Realty, Indiabulls Real Estate, Sunteck Realty: 26% to 89% increase

Nifty Energy (Top 5 performers):

NTPC: Over 80% increase

Indian Oil, Tata Power, GAIL, ONGC: Over 50% increase

PowerGrid, BPCL, RIL: 22% to 39% increase

Adani Green: Almost 20% decrease

Adani Energy Solutions: Over 61% decrease

Expert Opinions:

Nifty Energy:

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities, favors Nifty Energy due to potential valuation benefits around Budget time. He anticipates minimal policy changes.

Nifty Realty:

Jyoti Roy, Head of Equity Research, Sanctum Wealth, leans towards the Energy sector, expecting a continued focus on green energy in Budget 2024.

Harinder Sahu, Sebi-registered Research Analyst at King Research Academy, also prefers Nifty Energy, citing strong performance in the sector.

Divergent Views:

Atul Parakh, CEO of Bigul, favors Nifty Realty, citing its potential based on expectations of infrastructure spending, affordable housing push, and tax benefits for homebuyers.

Opinions vary on whether to favor Nifty Energy or Nifty Realty in light of the Budget. Factors considered include government policies, sector-specific performance, and potential announcements. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making investment decisions.